Economists once predicted that the winter of 2022 would be harsh for the Europeans. This assumption is mainly based on the energy deficiency in European countries due to the Russo-Ukrainian War. About 40 percent of natural gas consumed in the EU comes from Russia, which is transported through pipelines in neighboring countries, including several through Ukraine. (https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-gas-europe-reliant-ukraine-conflict-crisis-alternative-supplies-explained-1426835) Therefore, as the conflict goes increasingly intense and the domestic demand for energy rises drastically in Russia, the external energy supply to European countries should have been affected to drop significantly. In addition, in the winter of 2022, it was predicted that the European zone would encounter a severe cold wave that was forecasted to extend into early April (https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather, by Marko Korosec) in the upcoming year. This prediction further exacerbated the worry possessed by the Europeans that energy would become even more scarce. Indeed, by the end of the autumn of 2022, the energy bills for European households and businesses soared to an astonishing level. As of Oct. 3 local time, the monthly Dutch TTF gas futures contract had surged nearly tenfold from a year ago to 169.06 euros per megawatt hour. There was no doubt that European countries were encountering an inevitable energy crisis.
Alongside the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the upcoming cold wave, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline explosion in the Baltic Sea, which happened on September 26th, 2022, aggravated the energy issue. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a natural gas pipeline directly linking Russia and Germany across the Baltic Sea. It directly contributes to Europe’s dependence on Russia’s energy supply. The pipeline supplies 51 billion cubic meters of natural gas underwater using 200,000 pipes from Russia to Germany while bypassing Poland and other countries. It supplies 34% of European gas (https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-germany-russia/#, by Dorothy Musariri) in total, it is indispensable in resolving the energy crisis. The pipeline explosion increased anxiety and desperation regarding the approaching winter.
Fortunately, neither the destructive force nor the duration of the cold wave was as long as expected. Instead of extending to April, the cold wave is anticipated to end within March. Maxar Technologies Inc., a weather forecasting company, predicted that "temperatures are expected to rise quickly and may remain above seasonal norms for the next two weeks." This sudden good news contributed to resolving the energy crisis as it relieved the pressure of households and businesses demanding excess energy supply to sustain through extreme weather conditions. As a result, the natural gas inventories amongst European countries remain at a healthy level, allowing the natural gas prices to fall amid the volatility; European gas benchmark futures fluctuated between small gains and losses, falling as much as 2.3 percent and beginning to hover near levels last seen before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, the shift in circumstance does not necessarily indicate a revival of the energy supply in Europe.
The aftermaths of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosion continue to forbid a massive rise in European countries’ natural gas supply, and the shortened cold wave period has not necessarily relieved Europe’s reliance on Russia’s energy support. Subsequently, although the natural gas price has fallen significantly, the crisis still exists. Nevertheless, there are promising solutions to take in response to Europe's current situation.
First, the discovery and enhancement of new gas importing routes can be effective. Apart from energy supply from Russia, Europe has long been considering to expand and diversify its energy import routes from its surrounding regions. For instance, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which was established in the year of 2020 and contributed massively to the liquefied natural gas supply in Europe, can be further expanded and enhanced to meet the boosting gas demand in Europe. The SGC serves as a pipeline infrastructure that brings gas to European countries from the Caspian Basin and has delivered roughly 80 per cent of the total liquefied natural gas supply that Europe imported in 2022. Although its current capacity is inferior to the colossal supply from Russia, with the expansion of several more pipelines, its future capability remains promising and possibly effective in relieving the pressure the absence of Russian supply brings.
Second, increasing the use of alternative energy source can be considered as a promising solution. For example, advancing the utility and efficiency of renewable energy, such as wind and hydro power, may help to relieve the peaking demand for natural gas. In fact, the contemporary Europe has already started massive use of renewable energy as alternative resources to natural gas and oil. For instance, in Germany, nearly 33% of the power was generated through renewable sources and the onshore and offshore wind capacity accounts for nearly half the renewable electricity generation, while natural gas merely generates 13.2% of electricity in the country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/736640/energy-mix-germany). Therefore, the complete transition from natural gas generation to renewable energy generation amongst European countries is viable and effective and is indeed a favorable solution in resolving the natural gas scarcity.
To conclude, although there are certain casualties that helped to relieve, the energy crisis amongst European countries remains. However, the situation is not as desperation as it appears to be. In fact, there are promising methods that are plausible and effective in resolving the issue. Thereby, the future circumstance amongst European countries remains optimistic.